The Rise of Econometrics

As economics grew into its own as a scientific discipline, two questions became pressing. 1) How to deal with empirical data, particular separating cause and effect, 2) how to give good and predictive policy advice. A large part of the answer came in the form of econometrics. A distinct form of applied science mixing economic theory with statistics and math. In today’s episode we talk about three laurates that spearheaded econometrics Ragnar Anton Kittil Frisch who invented the term and has another prize named after him. Jan Tinbergen who’s work in dynamic models, statistical identification and macro-economic modeling earned him a place among the most influential first generations econometricians. Finally, we will talk about Wassily Wassilyevich Leontief, who pioneered input-output analysis and sector analysis. This episode is also unique as it features only Europeans – a rare thing indeed in modern economics.In season 1 (Danish) we reviewed the history of economic thought before WWII. The coming seasons are dedicated to the Nobel Prize in Economics, and I am joined by economist Otto Brøns-Petersen. The Nobel prize is a good benchmark for how the field and profession of economics developed after WWII. We will focus both on the scientific contributions and on the people behind them. These are all star economists and worthy of your time and attention. Some will mainly feature in one episode, others in several. We therefore advice that you listen in the thematic order we propose – but it is up to you. Rest assured, we will cover all… Eventually.References:Sløk-Madsen, S. K. (2022). Danish Capitalism in the 20th Century: A Business History of an Innovistic Mixed Economy. Springer Nature.Dekker, E. (2021). Jan Tinbergen (1903–1994) and the Rise of Economic Expertise. Cambridge University Press.Link Ragnar Frisch (Banquet speech and lectures)https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1969/frisch/facts/rg)Link Jan Tinbergen (Banquet speech and lectures)https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1969/tinbergen/lecture/rg)Link Wassily Wassilyevich Leontief (Banquet speech and lectures)https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1973/leontief/speech/