Enter the Year of the Dragon! Our predictions for 2024

Dairy Herd will eventually stabilize and start to grow again We will begin 2024 with 50,000 fewer heifers than we did in 2023 Milk output will begin to grow again by spring flush Buyers should be defensive and buy into weakness to extend coverage Cocoa Fundamentals are only now starting to catch up to the price move we have already seen Lag in arrivals and projected deficit is growing as we near the mid-point of the main-crop More price increases by large branded companies are expected as cocoa continues to trade at 47-year highs High prices will cause demand destruction manifest in retail sales figures Economy & energy First rate reduction at June FOMC: 100bp total 2024 Core CPI falls to 3% and holds GDP averages closer to 1%, maybe a slight negative quarter mixed in S&P makes new record high, but returns come back down to earth in the 6-8% range Crude oil breaks the $68 soft floor and averages $65 despite an EIA forecast of $78 Sugar # 11 sugar will trade up to mid-20s before coming back to current levels # 16 market will remain just below High Tier imports 2025 sugar negotiations will mirror 2024 negotiations Corn Acreage may lose to soybeans Ethanol demand stalls Exports robust Ending stocks remain over 2.0 billion bushels Wheat U.S. crop to reach 2 billion bushels next year, despite fewer planted acres Global stocks recover: 267 to 270 MMT La Niña watch in late 2024 Edible oils Soybean oil use for biofuel to reach or surpass 13.4 billion lbs Despite this, soybean oil futures may finally meet their “new normal”: listen for that number! McKeany-Flavell’s Spring Market Seminar coming April 17, 2024! Mark your calendars, registration opens in January! Happy New Year! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEOExpert: Jeffrey Rasinski, ConsultantExpert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk ManagementExpert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners SpecialistExpert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity SpecialistExpert: Eric Thornton, Commodity SpecialistExpert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services