China's Energy Crisis

Welcome to the 924 new members of the curiosity tribe who have joined us since Friday. Join the 37,001 others who are receiving high-signal, curiosity-inducing content every single week.Today’s newsletter is brought to you by Tegus!When I started to dive in on the Chinese energy crisis, Tegus was yet again my first destination—a cheat code for my investment research and learning process. Tegus is the leading platform for primary research—a searchable database of thousands of instantly-available, investor-led interviews with experts on a wide range of industries, companies, and topics. It’s fast and cost-effective, enabling you to do great primary research without breaking the bank.Special Offer: Tegus is offering a free 2-week trial to all Curiosity Chronicle subscribers—sign up below to level up your investment research game today!Today at a Glance:China’s energy crisis is best understood through the simple, Econ 101 lens of supply and demand, with a particular focus on the coal market.Demand-side drivers primarily include a booming recovery from COVID-19 lows and a hotter-than-normal year that increased residential power usage. Supply-side drivers include coal shortages, import restrictions, utility price fixing, and CCP emissions targets.Net-net, we have demand up and supply down, leading to widespread shortages, rising costs, and a ripple effect that extends across the globe—the stage is set for what could be a long, cold winter.China’s Energy CrisisIn last week’s newsletter piece—the aptly named Supply Chain Apocalypse—I made brief reference to China’s burgeoning energy crisis as a supply dislocation further compounding our global supply chain woes.In the days since that piece was released, China’s energy crisis went from under-the-radar to front page news—hitting “above the fold” in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, and Bloomberg, among others, as experts bemoaned its potential to hammer our weakened supply chains and derail the global recovery.I’ve always been fascinated by energy—it is, quite literally, what makes our world work—so yet again, I found myself going down the rabbit hole, exploring the crisis in detail and attempting to distill its key drivers and potential effects.Here’s a simple breakdown of what I learned.Spoiler Alert: This may be China’s Energy Crisis, but in an interconnected global economy, nobody is insulated from this disruption.BackgroundThe growing Chinese energy crisis had (mostly) happened outside the spotlight of the mainstream media.To be sure, among real energy market observers, it had been a key topic for months, alongside European natural gas price spikes, carbon credit markets, and the normal course OPEC debates—but the narrative accelerated meaningfully on the back of other China woes (Evergrande, supply chain disarray, etc.).China is most definitely feeling the pain, but we may be in the early innings (sorry, baseball analogies stick with you!), with the contagion likely poised to spread globally.The ImpactWhat are the visible impacts of China's energy crisis?More than half of China's mainland provinces have been forced to limit electricity usage due to shortages. According to a recent Bloomberg article, the Chinese microblogging site Weibo is filled with stories of people sharing how their daily lives are being impacted by the crunch—no tap water, no cell service, no traffic lights, and even a shortage of candles.In the industrial sector, the largest industrial provinces are facing significant cuts just as they try to dig their way out of the backlog that has been created by COVID restrictions and supply chain kinks.Looking outside of China, we see widespread concerns among politicians and energy market experts over rising coal and natural gas prices (the latter of which deserves its own piece in the future). Policymakers are expressing real angst over the ability of their countries to adequately heat homes as winter months approach.The price chart of European natural gas tells a pretty scary story—much of Europe could be in for a long, cold winter.Suffice to say, the impact of the energy crisis is already quite bad—but it has the potential to get much, much worse.The Drivers of China’s Energy CrisisIn attempting to understand the situation, it's important to understand that the economy is an interconnected web of activity. Nothing happens in a vacuum. This means that an energy crisis in China is not just about China—it has a complex set of causes and effects.In this situation, China's crisis is primarily related to coal. Why? Well, China is very reliant on coal—it has been the driving force of their economic growth. Here are two great visualizations of that reliance.While out of vogue due to its environmental impact, coal does remain a key source of electric power globally.The science is pretty simple (see the diagram below). Coal is burned, the heat released boils water, which produces steam, which drives a turbine, which produces electricity.To dissect the co...